Ha! Now its Our Turn to Laugh at the Political Pundits!


Before the November elections, while most surveys showed Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, Gallup predicted Romney would win by a comfortable 6% lead [in popular votes].

But President Barack Obama won with 51% popular votes (PV) and 332 electoral votes (EV) with Gov. Mitt Romney getting 47% PVs and 206 EVs.

In contrast to the final result, this is how the political pundits predicted the outcome days before the election:

• Newt Gingrich: “I believe the minimum result will be 53% to 47% Romney [popular votes], [and] over 300 electoral votes.”

• Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253 [electoral votes]. “If crowds at his recent stops in these states [NV, WI and PA] are any indication of his supporters’ enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim vic­tory in these states as well.” Romney lost in all the states

• Dick Morris, Fox News contributor: Romney 325, Obama 213 [electoral votes]. “It will be the biggest surprise in recent American po­litical history… …”

• Conservative columnist George Will: Romney 321, Obama 217. “The wild card in what I’ve projected is I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney.” Minnesota went to Obama.

• House Speaker John Boehner: “I think Ohioans vote with their wal­lets. That’s why I think Romney’s going to win on Tuesday.”

• Fox News’s Sean Hannity: “I got this, Romney three [percentage] points [in popular votes]”

• CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, predicting a Romney landslide: “I am now predicting a 330 electoral vote landslide [for Romney]. Yes, that’s right — 330 electoral votes.”

• Rush Limbaugh in his daily radio talk show: “All of my thinking says Romney big… …[M]y intellectual analysis of this — factoring every­thing I see plus the polling data — it’s not even close. Three hundred-plus electoral votes for Romney.”

• The Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan: “I think it’s Romney. … While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency.

• Former Bush White House press secretary Ari Fleischer: “My pre­diction: Romney 50.1%-49.5%. Romney wins minimum 271 Electoral Votes with FL, VA, CO, WI, NH. 309 Electoral Votes if he takes OH & PA. Pres-elect Romney.” Obama won in all these states. — Sources: Politico and the Internet.

So much for the punditocracy!

Only New York Times’ Nate Silver (the Five-Thirty-Eight fame) was predicting throughout that Obama would scrape through with a thin major­ity of PVs, with the EVs anywhere between 290 and 310.

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