By Kollengode S Venkataraman
Before the November elections, while most surveys showed Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, Gallup predicted Romney would win by a comfortable 6% lead [in popular votes].
But President Barack Obama won with 51% popular votes (PV) and 332 electoral votes (EV) with Gov. Mitt Romney getting 47% PVs and 206 EVs.
In contrast to the final result, this is how the political pundits predicted the outcome days before the election:
- Newt Gingrich: I believe the minimum result will be 53% to 47% Romney [popular votes], [and] over 300 electoral votes.
- Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253 [electoral votes]. If crowds at his recent stops in these states [NV, WI and PA] are any indication of his supporters’ enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim victory in these states as well. Romney lost in all the states
- Dick Morris, Fox News contributor: Romney 325, Obama 213 [electoral votes]. “It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history.”
- Conservative columnist George Will: Romney 321, Obama 217. The wild card in what I’ve projected is I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney. Minnesota went to Obama
- House Speaker John Boehner: I think Ohioans vote with their wallets. That’s why I think Romney’s going to win on Tuesday
- Fox News’ Sean Hannity: I got this, Romney three [percentage] points [in popular votes].
- CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, predicting a Romney landslide: I am now predicting a 330 electoral vote landslide [for Romney]. Yes, that’s right. 330 electoral votes.
- Rush Limbaugh in his daily radio talk show: All of my thinking says Romney big. [M]y intellectual analysis of this, factoring everything I see plus the polling data. It’s not even close. Three hundred-plus electoral votes for Romney.
- The Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan: I think it’s Romney. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency.
- Former Bush White House press secretary Ari Fleischer: My prediction: Romney 50.1%-49.5%. Romney wins minimum 271 Electoral Votes with FL, VA, CO, WI, NH. 309 Electoral Votes if he takes OH & PA. Pres-elect Romney. Obama won in all these states. Sources: Politico and the Internet.
So much for the punditocracy!
Only New York Times‘ Nate Silver (the Five-Thirty-Eight fame) was predicting throughout that Obama would scrape through with a thin majorÂity of PVs, with the EVs anywhere between 290 and 310. ∎