Kollengode S Venkataraman (written in January 2005)
Democrats and their sympathizers can parse the November election results any which way they want, but the simple truth is undeniable:
The president was reelected to office with a plurality of votes, something that had not happened in the last several elections. The Republican majority in the US Senate has jumped up from a thin 51-48 majority to a comfortable 55-44 majority, with one independent. In the US House, the Republicans have picked up three more seats to 231 from 228 in a House of total 433 members. In the House, where members have the best job security one can imagine, a 3-member gain for Republicans when they are already in a comfortable majority is definitely noteworthy. If this is not a mandate in the political sense, then what is?
To quote the Tamil poet Kannadasan, “Nobody asks a victor whether he followed the right path towards his victory.” Naturally, in elections, and in business, and even in our personal lives, the bottom line is the only thing that counts, unless there is a big scandal behind the successes.
Republicans feel that they followed not only a right path towards their victory, but also righteous path, given their President George Bush’s proclivity to wear his faith on his sleeves and the millions of Christian Fundamentalists who delivered votes in battleground states.
Senator Kerry, for his part, gave a gallant fight, given the difficult set of circumstances he was in. That he was not helped by his running mate, the Southern Senator John Edwards, wouldn’t have surprised him, given the pre-election calculus of his own party.
Generally, US presidents have difficulty in their second term because of their lame duck status. What may make it more difficult for President Bush is that Vice President Dick Cheney is unlikely to seek the Republican nomination in 2008, given his age, health history, and more to the point, his political baggage. So, with no “natural” heir of a vice president seeking nomination in the 2008 election, the field for the Republican nominees will be wide open.
And this has the potential to complicate President Bush’s second term particularly in the second half, when he cannot avoid the lame duck status. This is because a large number of ambitious Republican candidates would be jockeying themselves, first for nomination, and then for victory against Democrats. If things do not go well for Bush between now and 2008 (Iraq, Iran, the economy, trade, and budget deficits), these unencumbered Republican presidential aspirants would not hesitate to distance themselves from his policies.
So, for President Bush, between now and the midterm election in 2006 is the most crucial time to push through as much of his political agenda as he possibly can. His list is very long indeed: On the domestic front, a) making permanent the tax breaks he has given to the people in the top 1% of the income level and shifting the tax burden on the middle class, b) privatizing social security, c) packing the federal court system with religious and social conservatives of his liking, d) the changing health care delivery system and higher education necessitated by their costs escalating at 300% to 400% the rate of inflation.
On the international front: a) fighting terrorism outside the country “so that they do not attack us inside,” b) nuclear proliferation, c) taking care of the remaining components of what he termed as “Axis of Evil” given his religious fundamentalist background, d) salvaging whatever is left of the US-Europe alliance badly weakened by Bush’s go-it-alone Cowboy attitude, e) his holy-grail of democracy in middle east, f) breaking the Gordian knot of the festering Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The list is indeed very long.
Usually, US presidents in their second and final term become obsessed with the legacy they leave behind. This gives them a rare opportunity to become expansive mentally, intellectually, even spiritually, provided they are reflective.
But this president is not known to be reflective. He even brags about this as his strengths. He likes to understand the outside world in simple black-and-white terms – remember his statement, “If you are not with us, you’re against us!”- in terms of his Fundamentalist Christian theological beliefs.
He may be transformed by his desire to leave an inclusive legacy.
But he will meet opposition from within. The social and religious conservatives, not to speak of the powerful corporate donors, on whose back Bush rode to victory, would sure ask for their pound of flesh in terms of what he can, and can NOT do on domestic and foreign affairs.
And he may find himself a prisoner in the cage of his own making.
For Democrats, there may be a ray of hope, even though they are completely out of power in the Federal government. he executive and legislative branches of the Federal government are firmly in Republican control. And the federal courts, with more and more Bush appointees, will be more right-leaning. Therefore, it is understandable if Bush and his Republican Neo-Con ideologues in their second term play hardball in dealing with Democrats and become even more right-wing.
And the Republican’s hubris might lead to their nemesis in the form of the inevitable fissures within the Republican party between its moderates and the right-wingers, with moderate Republicans getting support from the Democrats, at least in the Senate.
The Republicans may even self-destruct themselves with power, as it has happened time and time again in history, and also in epics… … as it happened to the Yadhavas in the Mahabharata towards its end. END